The Bucs were last summer’s media darlings with plenty of buzz about a playoff berth in 2017, and they proceeded to make a lot of people look stupid. After a promising 9-7 season in 2016, Tampa Bay finished last in the division and were probably the season’s biggest disappointment. The silver lining in 2017, though, was their 1-4 record in games decided by three points or less, so they weren’t necessarily uncompetitive. The Buccaneers hype train may not be rolling like it was last offseason, but there is a plethora of offensive talent as well as pieces and new additions on defense to make a playoff push. But can they put it all together?
1st Down: Is this the now or never season for the faces of this franchise?
Sports Illustrated
Jameis Winston threw a wrench in the Bucs’ 2018 campaign by groping an Uber driver back in 2016 and receiving a three-game suspension to start this season. While he got off pretty easy (it’s supposed to be a six-game ban), he hasn’t done his team any favors by having to miss out on their toughest 3-game stretch of the season. The Bucs travel to New Orleans to play the Saints on opening day and then host the Eagles and the Steelers in back to back weeks. Even with a capable short-term backup in Ryan Fitzpatrick, the most likely scenario here is that the Bucs start 0-3. In possibly the most competitive division in the NFC, a hole that deep is not ideal, especially with the rest of their schedule not teeming with cupcakes.
Winston needs to get his act together and prove that he is trustworthy both on and off the field. More specifically, he needs to continue to improve his accuracy, limit his turnovers, and get on the same page with DeSean Jackson. Another disappointing season in Tampa will lead to a lot of questions about the future of not just Winston but head coach Dirk Koetter, who has a 14-18 record, and general manager Jason Licht, who’s presided over their last five drafts (one in which he drafted a kicker in the second round) and a 22-42 record. The Bucs are too talented to be non-competitive, and this might be these three’s last chance to show it.
2nd down: Will the investment along the defensive line lead to a more stout defense?
Choose any defensive statistic from 2017 you want. Now, look up where the Bucs ranked in that metric. They were probably really bad. Tampa Bay gave up the most yards in the league and totaled the fewest sacks. They gave up the most passing yards and the third most rushing touchdowns. They conceded the most yards per play and the highest 3rd down conversion percentage. Regardless of how you slice it, the Bucs defense was atrocious. To help solve this abuse, the Bucs went defensive line heavy in the offseason. They traded for Jason Pierre-Paul, signed two former Eagles linemen in Vinny Curry and Beau Allen, brought in Mitch Unrein, and drafted Vita Vea with their 12th overall pick.
They chose to prioritize the defensive line in hopes that productivity there will have a ripple effect throughout the rest of the unit. Part of the reason why they gave up so many third down conversions and yards through the air can be attributed to their non-existent pass rush, so the heavy investment was necessary, and they hope it can pick up the slack for a young, questionable secondary. They seem to be instilling a rotating defensive line as well, not only to keep guys fresh rushing the passer but to be firm in setting the edge and stifle opposing rushing attacks. It was all bad in Tampa, so this is should be a solid place to start.
3rd down: How much improvement can the Bucs get out of the secondary?
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
The pass defense was trash, we know that. And while it didn’t help that the pass rush couldn’t make opposing quarterbacks sweat a drop, the back end of the defense was a sieve. The Bucs gave up the third-most 20+ yard pass plays and the sixth-most 40+ yard pass plays, so clearly there were and are glaring holes in the secondary. 2016’s 11th overall pick Vernon Hargreaves has been a disappointment so far (due to inconsistent play as well as injuries), and Chris Conte is mistake-prone at one safety spot while second-year guy Justin Evans shows promise but is just as prone to missing tackles at the other safety position. The best defensive back in Tampa is Brent Grimes, who’s 35 and has struggled with injuries last season and this summer.
After going all in on defensive linemen earlier in the offseason, the Bucs spent two of their four second round picks on defensive backs M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis. Stewart is a versatile DB that can provide support from the outside, slot, and safety spot while Davis is a pure corner with the size, length, and ball skills that can trouble receivers in press coverage. So, there is some needed competition in the secondary this summer, and the Bucs need it to bring out the best possible defensive backs for 2018.
4th down: Can Ronald Jones II step in and rejuvenate the running game?
While it’s likely that the Bucs’ season will start with a more running back by committee approach, early second round pick Ronald Jones II has a good opportunity to win the job at a position that’s given Tampa Bay absolutely nothing lately. Their 3.7 and 3.6 yards per carry average in the last two seasons was good for fifth and fourth worst in the league, respectively. Tampa Bay finished the 2017 season with one 100-yard rushing game and a grand total of five runs of 20 yards or more (second fewest in the NFL). Jones, however, brings the potential for an every down back with big play ability. And by proving he can be a reliable pass-catching back, he’ll be the most versatile runner in Tampa’s backfield. If Jones can win the job this summer, or even during the season, his elusiveness and burst can bring an explosiveness to a Bucs rushing attack that’s been lacking in firepower since Doug Martin’s 2015 campaign.
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