The Texans might have been the unluckiest team in the NFL last season. Budding rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a non-contact ACL tear in practice. Three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt broke his leg in week five. Whitney Mercilus, Houston’s leading sack artist the previous season, suffered a season-ending torn pectoral in the same game as Watt. Houston lost three of its best players in less than a month, and their season subsequently went down the drain. So, the return of this trio restores hope that the Texans can reclaim the AFC South crown they’d worn after 2015 and 2016. But the 9-7 record from both of those seasons won’t be enough to win this division in the 2018 campaign, so some questions need answers in Houston.
1st down: How much can the returning franchise cornerstones boost the division’s last place team?
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Deshaun Watson can’t possibly sustain his 9% touchdown rate. He threw 19 touchdowns in his first seven games, but that explosive pace was going to drop off (even Tom Brady’s 50 touchdown season had a rate of 8.6%). Watson doesn’t need to duplicate that kind of production in 2018, but he does need to build on last season’s level of play, especially with the rest of the league now having plenty of time to watch tape on the second-year quarterback. And that’s also why Bill O’Brien has apparently brought in a completely new offense for Watson this offseason. Last season saw the former Clemson Tiger in a system set up for Tom Savage (yes, O’Brien examined an entire offseason and decided that Savage was better than Watson). But Watson is spending all summer with the offense firmly in his grasp, and the Texans will be building it around his strengths.
On the other side of the ball, Watt and Mercilus return to enhance last season’s putrid defense. Houston finished last in points allowed (27.3), second-worst in yards per play (5.7), and bottom 10 in sacks (32). Those numbers will surely improve with the two defenders back in the lineup. But Watt will need to stay on the field (he’s played 8 games over the last two seasons) and show that his recurring injuries haven’t diminished his play. Jadeveon Clowney and new additions Tyrann Mathieu and Aaron Colvin should help bolster the defense, but Watt (and the underrated Mercilus) are anchors on that side of the field that the Texans need to keep the unit secure.
2nd down: What the hell is that offensive line going to look like this season?
Even if he hadn’t gotten injured in practice, Deshaun Watson’s health was in serious jeopardy on the field. The 2017 Texans fielded the worst offensive line in the league, and it really wasn’t close. According to Pro Football Focus, Watson and Savage were under pressure for 47.7 and 46.7 percent of their respective dropbacks, the highest rates in the league, and the Texans offensive line allowed the most pressures overall with 253. The only thing they weren’t the worst at was sacks allowed, where they came in second worst with 54. Watson is blessed with mobility and creativity on the run, but, regardless, without enough protection he won’t be Houston’s quarterback for long. The Texans tried to improve their offensive front by signing a handful of names, but, outside of Zach Fulton, that’s really all they are, and PFF has graded this group as the worst in the NFL going into the 2018 campaign. They couldn’t make impactful signings in free agency, and they had limited resources in the draft after their Brock Osweiler contract dump and trading up for Watson in 2017’s draft. It really won’t matter that they finally found a franchise quarterback if the offensive line remains in shambles.
3rd down: How much will Watson get from the skill positions?
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DeAndre Hopkins is a top 5 receiver in the league, at worst, but after him there really isn’t much certainty around Watson. Will Fuller can be a big-time vertical threat but has dealt with constant injuries. Last season, Lamar Miller ran for 888 yards, three touchdowns, and 3.7 yards per carry, the lowest among backs with at least 230 rushing attempts. D’Onta Foreman was Houston’s promising third-rounder from last year, but after an Achilles injury ended his 2017 season, there’s no assurance whether he’ll be ready to carry the rock on opening day. Behind those guys, there isn’t a lot of promising production. Training camp will settle the battles between rookie Keke Coutee, Braxton Miller, and Bruce Ellington, but those last two were less than impressive last season while the former is an injured rookie. Alfred Blue is the No. 2 ball carrier right now in Houston’s de facto running back by committee, but the Texans would rather have Foreman and Miller sharing more of the carries. Watson did a lot on his own last season, but the Texans won’t go very far with him under center without significant contributions from this (mostly unproven) supporting cast.
4th down: Can the Texans keep up with the rest of the AFC South?
Even though it’s the driest division in the league, the AFC South will still be one of the most competitive. The Jaguars are a legitimate unit now after a season that saw them reach the conference championship. The Titans were also a playoff team. The Colts are getting revamped, and they’re getting the best QB in the division back. Meanwhile, the Texans have key players coming back from serious injuries and have issues protecting the quarterback and running the ball in what is a gritty, hard-nosed division. The return of their stars is a major boost, but we’ll see if it’s enough to climb up the standings in the AFC South.
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